个人电脑市场回暖态势将延续

一份来自研究机构的行业报告指出,截至2018年,全球个人电脑市场已连续7年萎缩,产业夕阳化已成为业内人士的普遍共识。然而,就在今年第2季度,个人电脑销量却同比上升1.5%。这是否意味着个人电脑市场将回暖?个人电脑市场的未来发展趋势又会如何?

市场回暖态势将延续

回首2011年,当年全球个人电脑销量达到3.53亿台,而2018年全球个人电脑出货量只有2.59亿台,出货量下降了近亿台。在个人电脑市场连续7年萎缩的背景下,2019年第2季度个人电脑销量却出现逆势增长,这主要有3方面原因:

一是英特尔芯片短缺情况有所改善。受产能限制,2018年英特尔芯片优先供应给服务器、游戏机等高端产品,造成低端的个人电脑处理器芯片供应紧张,特别是宏碁、华硕等小型个人电脑制造商直接遭遇芯片短缺困境。2019年,在产能提升的背景下,英特尔的芯片供应能力增强,芯片短缺情况得到好转。

二是Windows10系统更新升级拉动了一部分需求。系统和软件的升级拉动硬件需求,是信息技术产业中的常见现象。目前微软正在积极推动用户将系统更新升级到Windows10,该系统部分新功能的实现,需要性能更高的硬件支撑,这就直接拉动了用户的换机需求。

三是个人电脑制造商创造新需求。在信息技术产业发展过程中,有效供给创造需求的案例不胜枚举。当前部分个人电脑制造商深度挖掘不同用户的需要,研发出全新的个人电脑产品如游戏本、图像处理本等,这也在一定程度上促使个人电脑市场回暖。

在新技术和产业发展的双重推动下,笔者认为个人电脑市场的回暖态势仍将延续。一方面,5G即将全面爆发,直接提升用户对5G个人电脑的需求。另一方面,在人工智能、云计算等新技术的赋能下,个人电脑将逐步由单纯生产力工具向创新工具转变,这将给个人电脑市场创造新的需求。

趋向专业化、场景化、定制化

由于智能手机迭代速度加快,手机应用逐渐深度融入用户的日常生活,它彻底改变了人们社交、游戏、消费方式。在手机对个人电脑市场不断挤压的背景下,笔者认为个人电脑将呈现出专业化、场景化、定制化的趋势。具体而言:

一是使用场景更加偏向办公。个人电脑在娱乐和生活应用方面无法做到像手机一样便捷,导致其在娱乐化和生活化使用场景的出现频次会不断减少,但由于屏幕尺寸、文件编辑等方面的限制,现阶段手机在办公功能方面仍逊色于个人电脑,因此办公应用将是个人电脑未来的主要使用场景。

二是使用人群更偏向专业人士。尽管智能手机也在一定程度上提高了大众的工作效率,但不可否认,个人电脑仍是大众工作的主要帮手。目前,个人电脑日益成为一种办公工具和创新工具,而使用者也以专业人士为主。

三是产品形态趋向定制化。由于主要需求来自办公,个人电脑会日益趋向定制化,产品形态会变得更轻薄、便携,产品功能会更凸显图形处理、文字编辑、视频制作等特定功能。

转变思路抓住5G机遇

2017年,英特尔曾联合惠普、戴尔、联想等厂商提出了一个“Always Connected PC”(全互联PC)的概念,即个人电脑将内置英特尔的LTE解决方案,使电脑实现随时、高速、省电的联网。相较于4G,5G具备高速、稳定、低时延的移动网络接入能力,更有利于个人电脑像手机一样实时在线。5G网络将是推动全互联PC由概念变现实的关键技术。

从1G开始,移动通信技术基本上每10年就会发生一次技术跃迁,每次技术进步都对各行各业产生一定程度的影响。个人电脑行业与移动通信技术应用有着密切的联系,5G对个人电脑的影响也将是巨大的。

5G时代,移动通信网络服务对象将会从人与人通信拓展到人与物、物与物通信,因此笔者认为个人电脑制造商需要做到以下两方面的转变:

一是视角转变。不能仅从工具视角或者功能视角去定位电脑,而应从商业模式视角去重新挖掘个人电脑的应用领域。不能把计算机当作一种单纯的生产工具,而应把个人电脑作为一种产生创新的生产资料。

二是思维转变。不能只从产品思维去考虑个人电脑市场的发展,而要用生态思维去推动个人电脑的发展,在现有个人电脑产品业态基础上,针对不同人群增加“商业组合操作系统”,推动产品和服务定制化发展,促进个人电脑服务业转型升级。

(作者系中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所助理研究员)

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